Myanmar Coup Updates for March 14
Death toll spikes with dozens killed Sunday, mostly in Yangon; mobile internet blocked, possibly indefinitely; martial law declared in six townships so far; CRPH affirms right to self-defense as acting VP calls for "revolution" to overthrow junta; ASSK due in court; CRPH envoy says Tatmadaw has committed genocide in ethnic states; Russia plans to deliver arms to Myanmar this week
- Myanmar sees bloodiest day yet as death toll passes 160; brutal crackdown in Hlaing Thayar: Though the death count varies widely and is expected to rise, at least 160 have been killed in Myanmar since February 1 and dozens were killed on Sunday, the vast majority in Yangon (at least 59) and in Hlaing Thayar (at least 31 and up to 51), an industrial township home to many garment (and other) factories across the Hlaing River from downtown Yangon. Here are photographs of Hlaing Thayar before the violence and video of some of the chaos, of police shooting at protestors from the bridge over the river, and of police on TikTok glorifying violence in Hlaing Thayar; there are also reports that police shot at those that tried to aid wounded protesters, meaning that many bled to death. The violence was apparently prompted when four garment factories, including some Chinese-owned, were set on fire and protestors blocked fire engines from reaching the blazes. While it is unclear who started the fires, Chinese state media blames "anti-China locals who have been provoked by some Western anti-China forces" while protestors are blaming the Tatmadaw (it is worth recalling here how Myanmar blamed Rohingya for setting fire to their own houses in 2017). In a statement (in Burmese) on its Facebook page, China's embassy urged "Myanmar to take further effective measures to stop all acts of violence, punish the perpetrators in accordance with the law and ensure the safety of life and property of Chinese companies and personnel in Myanmar." The statement seems to suggest that, despite its discomfort with the military compared to ASSK and the NLD, China is firmly on the side of the Tatmadaw and may be hoping that brutal suppression of peaceful protestors hastens the return of some form of stability. The statement, though, is likely to inflame anti-Chinese sentiment in Myanmar; several have already pointed out China's greater concern for property than those being slaughtered in the streets.
- At least 20 others killed outside Hlaing Thayar:Outside of Hlaing Thayar, at least 17 were killed across Yangon, where at least seven were killed in Thingangyun and police beat a protestor attempting to provide aid to a killed protestor (here is another angle); two were killed in Bago (where there is video of police appearing to shoot indiscriminately); and one was killed in Hpakant (where protestors were violently dispersed). Protests have been so deadly that parents now say goodbye to their children with a blessing in case they do not come back. Despite the violence, protestors continued to innovate in their tactics, organizing "no-human strikes", "unmanned strikes", and silent strikes. There were gatherings of protestors across the country, including in Monywa, Mingyan, Aunglan (Magwe), Bago (where black flags were raised), and in Yangon, where large night protests were held.
- Mobile internet connectivity blocked: Though wifi connectivity returned on Monday at 6:30am, mobile internet connectivity remains blocked, meaning that most internet users in Myanmar (who access the web via their phones) will be cut off and only those with a home connection will be able to access the internet. There is speculation that the blockage will remain indefinitely. The Tatmadaw likely hopes to fill the void with its disinformation: in a report card of its first month in power, the SAC ludicrously touted its credentials (see p. 6-7) for peace and democracy (see p. 6-7); and after NLD member U Zaw Myat Lin died in custody (and appeared to suffer horrific torture), the Tatmadaw is threatening action against anyone that suggests he did not die by jumping from a house (see p. 11).
- Martial law declared, CRPH affirms right to self-defense: Following Sunday's violence, the Tatmadaw declared martial law in Hlaing Tharyar and Shwe Pyi Tha and later added North & South Dagon, Dagon Seikkan, North Okkalapa, giving the military commander of Yangon full administrative and judicial authority there. The CRPH, meanwhile, is taking an increasingly strong position against the coup. In the past few days the CRPH's acting vice president vowed to pursue a revolution to overthrow the coup and to "legislate the required laws so that the people have the right to defend themselves," a statement that was followed with CRPH affirming the right to self-defense, perhaps suggesting a shift in protesters' willingness to use violence. And the CRPH is also targeting the regime's sources of finance: in addition to boycotts of military products, and a halt to tax payments, the CRPH's acting Minister of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations suspended all investment permits and licenses, meaning those issued by the military's Myanmar Investment Commission will not be considered legal or valid.
- Potential for deescalation grows more remote:The potential for deescalation was increasingly remote even before this weekend. An analysis of nine possible scenarios from ISEAS, for example, suggests Myanmar is stuck in a the scenario of a "failed state characterized by chaos and anarchy"; the report concludes that "the more the anti-coup movement proves able to adopt comprehensive and diverse strategies, the more intense and even desperate the repression imposed by Myanmar’s military will become." With the Tatmadaw capable of extreme levels of violence and protesters' resolve hardening (and demands widening), the prospect of Myanmar becoming a failed state grow.
- Sunday's violence preceded by Saturday's: Sunday's toll comes atop the deaths of at least 14 protestors and innocent bystanders on Saturday and two night guards in Yangon were killed overnight: on the outskirts of Yangon, four were killed in Twante, with Light Infantry Division 77 implicated (and preventing relatives from collecting bodies of the dead); five in Mandalay, including the first monk to be killed since February 1 (warning: graphic) and a woman who gave shelter to protestors; at least one killed in Hpakant, Kachin; one was killed in Bago; three in Pyay, including a teenager; and one in Chauk.
- ASSK due in court Monday: Aung San Suu Kyi is due in court again on Monday, as the US (and others) continue to try to contact her. ASSK is facing fresh corruption accusations as well as charges for incitement, illegally importing walkie-talkies, and breaching COVID protocols
- War in the ethnic states marches on: While most attention has focused on urban, Bamar-majority areas (where most of the protests and recent killings have occurred), war between the Tatmadaw (or their proxies) and ethnic armed groups continues in many of the ethnic states (with Rakhine a notable exception). This essay (and this op-ed) is a good reminder that the horrors now being visited upon Yangon, Mandalay, and Sagaing are the lived experiences of ethnic minorities for decades. In recent weeks, conflict has continued in Kayin, Shan, and escalated in Kachin, where intense fighting is on-going for the first time since 2018 and civilians are newly displaced. The exception (for now) is in Rakhine, where the Arakan Army is no longer considered a terrorist organization and the Arakan National Party is cooperating with the Tatmadaw in exchange for a greater say in managing Rakhine State affairs.
- CRPH envoy says Tatmadaw has committed genocide: While he does not specifically refer to the Rohingya, CRPH envoy Dr. Sasa told the BBC that he believes the Tatmadaw has committed crimes against humanity and genocide against minortiies in Rakhine, Kachin, Shan, and other ethnic states (4'30" mark).
- International response
- More outrage and calls for action: In the midst of this weekend's violence, the UN Special Rapporteur reiterated his call for an arms embargo, the UN Special Envoy condemned the continuing bloodshed, the UK is appalled. Despite Sunday's violence, many remain highly skeptical that international action will be forthcoming; one Twitter user summed things up as follows: "Many news headlines tomorrow will read “deadliest day yet” in #Myanmar since 1 Feb about today’s senseless killings. A few statements from “international community” will follow and then quiet until the next deadliest day for more “deep concerns” bs again."
- Russia plans to deliver weapons to Myanmar:Despite Russia saying it was considering suspending defense cooperation with Myanmar on Friday, Mizzima is reporting that Russia will deliver two refurbished MIGs, sniper and assault rifles, and ammunition to Myanmar next week.
- Thailand's quiet diplomacy: Thai journalist Thepchai Yong makes the case that Thailand is well-placed to leverage its close relationship with Myanmar to bring about a deescalation through quiet diplomacy. Thailand is indeed close to Myanmar, as evidenced by Min Aung Hlaing's outreach to Thai Prime Minister (and coup beneficiary himself) Prayuth Chan-ocha and its feting of Min Aung Hlaing six months into the Tatmadaw's atrocities against the Rohingya. Indeed, Thailand's latest statement on Myanmar - from Thursday - smacks of "both sides-ism." Though it would be nice to be more optimistic about Thai intentions, a quiet rebuke from their neighbor is unlikely to alter the thinking of Myanmar's generals.
- Al Qaeda video calls for attacks on Myanmar government: In a new video by Al Qaeda's propaganda arm, As Sahab, Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri calls for Muslims in Myanmar and around the world to carry out attacks on Myanmar's government for atrocities committed against the Rohingya. Al Qaeda has made similar calls in the past, with little impact. Here is further analysis of the new statement.
- US grants Myanmar nationals Temporary Protected Status: Myanmar nationals currently living in the US were granted Temporary Protected Status for 18 months, meaning they can remain in the US for at least 18 months.
- Implications for international business
- MIC files online: Following last month's hack of Myanmar's Directorate of Investment and Company Administration, files from the Myanmar Investment Commission are now available in full here.
- Benetton suspends orders from Myanmar; Primark faces rights accusations over actions of supplier: Following in the footsteps of H&M, Benetton Group is suspending new orders from Myanmar. Primark, meanwhile is facing accusations that its suppliers locked workers in garment factories to prevent them from joining protests.
Steve Ross
Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement
